Daily PACS Jan. 13, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
Due to extended hours of trading, it seems that pullback occurs more like in an intraday basis. The strategy to anticipate pullback is becoming counterproductive in achieving our trading goal which is to maximize profits and be able to ride new stocks as it goes up. As such, the best course to take is to just base our decision on trend signals that PACS is giving and not to mind slight pullback unless the trend changes from bull to bear.
So based from our list, we can see that we only have a few stocks that are still trending down while the rest remains up. We only have EDC, JFC, BEL, AAI, EVER and PX which trends are down. Although they are down, the price level where their trend will shift from down to up may still offer a trade opportunity. Just like what happened to MWIDE, JGS and SMPH whose trend have changed from down to up, their stock price shot higher after the trend became up.
Another thing to watch is stocks whose trend are up but is on a pullback. Mostly price decline tends to stop and reverse just above or near the “Bearish Confirmation” point. Watch these levels closely especially if they start to bounce above it. They act as a good support in a bullish market.
As rotational buying continues, property sector was the flavor of the day yesterday. Today, I expect them to do well especially in the initial part of trading. We might also see some shift of play towards speculative stocks. Note that on Monday, it will be a holiday in the US because of Martin Luther day thus no trading for the DOW. It means that whatever gains/losses the Dow will have tonight, it will have less effect in the local market until Tuesday. Remember that when “the cat is away, the mice will play”. With not much leads to follow, speculative stocks are easier to push up. That is why there is a good chance that today some traders will choose to play speculative stock. Of course, the deciding factor if my theory is correct will always be the ticker. Wait until the tape show that the idea is correct before acting on it.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 11, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
There is not much to say about the market except that it is still in a confirmed rally but just like any rally, it is still vulnerable to pullbacks. We saw how slight pullback can affect stocks that are high risk like AAA, AAI and LMG to name a few. They drop quickly which doesn’t give traders especially the novice enough chance to react. That is why I haven’t included them again in TRADE IDEAS after we sold although they still remain a favorite among the public. Think what will happen if the pullback got extended and turned the market down…These stocks will be down some more. I am not saying that they are not a good stock to buy at the moment but here in PACS, we are always risk averse and if we don’t have a clue as to where the price will go….we don’t go in. It is better to get left behind than to pay a costly price for a trade mistake. Always remember that one bad trade can ruin all the effort that have gone into accumulating profits if we are not careful on the stocks we buy and don’t have the right money management system in place like cutting losses early.
So for today, we will continue to be optimistic but will play the market defensively. Stick to issues that are low risk and have not gone up very much yet (stocks in healthy consolidation). They may be boring but they offer a good potential to go up with a minimal downside risk in case a correction occurs (check Trade Ideas written yesterday for support levels and some issues to watch).
Again no new issues to watch except for what I have already written yesterday on Trade Ideas section.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 10, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
I was wrong to assume that the market will gyrate in a tight range before finally moving. It’s a good thing we have the borders to watch which gave signal as to where the direction will be when it breaks. We saw the importance of border resistance I gave in trading. Yesterday, the upper border resistance number to watch at 4,519 was broken. After it broke, the market flew higher and closed in the positive side up by 58 point at 4,541 level.
Jan 9, 2012 previous comment:
Today since all sector trends are up, we will assume the position that the market are still in a mini-bull run until proven otherwise. The question on every trader is how to tell that this mini bull-run is over? This is the most important piece of the equation that will make a big difference whether one will keep gains or give it back to the market.
Remember that at every peak of every market rally whether it’s a mini or major bull run everybody becomes bullish. Nobody will tell us that the market is already correcting. Luckily, we have our system and method in place. This is where the value of PACS comes into play and will really make a difference.
So to answer the question, here it is…once we see PACS trend starts to falter and trends downward then we say that this mini bull is over. This is the time to protect our profits and just get out.
The next question to everybody’s mind is how long will this last? I don’t know. It can last until next month, next week, tomorrow or even today. There are no methods or system invented yet to measure the duration of any bull or bear market. The key to successful trading will always be just to go with the flow and not to mind the duration which nobody knows anyway. Stay in the position as long as the trend is still up and get out once it’s over. No ifs or buts. That’s how plain and simple it is…Period.
The type of mini-bull that the market currently has is a rotational type. It means that prices don’t ordinarily move in unison. Price movement rotates from one group to another. For example, today you will notice that mining sector have moved and then it was followed immediately by property sector and the other week, there were the third liners. The groups I mentioned doesn’t move in tandem and that is why to some, they won’t feel this mini bull market especially if they are in the wrong stock. One thing of note is that the general rotation tends to be fast and it doesn’t last long. One will notice that stocks generally tend to immediately go back to consolidation mode after every up-move.
So what strategy do we employ? There are two ways to play this kind of market. One is the guerrilla type of trading…get in and get out fast. It simply means buying stock that moves and selling the first sign of weakness. This type of trading requires especial trading skills and quick action. The other way is through buy and hold strategy. Buy and accumulate stocks which are showing some activity and ride it until PACS says the trend have turned lower. This strategy maximizes profit and requires less trading skill. Once you buy, you just leave your position and watch the trend. That’s it! At the end of the day, the strategy one uses will depend on his/her temperament. Just remember to befriend your trend and never to trade opposite.
For more of stocks to watch…head over to Trade Ideas section.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 9, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
I wrote last Friday that the market may start to pull back and that traders should stay on the side lines. Indeed, the Phisix started to pullback and loss 35 points during last Friday’s trade. It is not much to rave about but having avoided being stuck in a position gives one a flexibility to decide whether to buy or not in case an opportunity arise. It’s an advantage over others who have to wait for the stock price to go back to their acquisition cost before their capital starts to work again.
Jan 6, 2012 previous comment:
Note that it will be hard to duplicate market’s performance last week especially that the ALL-sector of the market reflected a trend which is now down. The succeeding days to come will determine if the pullback will lead to further correction or an upside movement. Border levels to watch on the market will be 4,519 to the upside and 4,423 to the downside. Also of note are the two issues that showed a trend reversal towards the downside. They are SMPH and MWIDE.
On the positive side, the mining sector did a catch up move last Friday which led to a trend reversal to being up. Refer to Trade Ideas written today for related stocks to watch.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 5, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
The market opened stronger yesterday and went up by 65.55 or +1.44 percent. All sectors now are almost trending up except for mining which needs to close higher than 24,739 or have to gain 259 points in order to join the other sectors. If it does then we can probably assume that the index is in a mini bull run as long as all sectors’ continue to trend higher.
Of course, let us not forget that the problem in EUROPE is still there and that the world market is just trying to ignore them for now. How long this will last? I don’t know. In fact, today the Euro currency is seen trading lower than 1.30 level. Note that every time EURO currency trades lower than 1.30, it means that there are EURO problems that investors are worrying about. It can probably be the news about “Greece warns on Euro Exit” reported by BBC or because of Spain’s Expansion newspaper “reported that Spain is seeking IMF and EFSF loans to help them recap their banks. Spanish bonds are trading lower on the story even though it was denied by the Spanish government,” as written in marketwatch.com. Whatever it is, I wouldn’t worry about it at the moment. I’ll start worrying when our local market’s upward trend starts to falter.
Over on stock issues we cover on PACS, the following stocks just started to trend up. They are RLC, EDC, SMC and FLI. BEL’s trend turned south which worries me a lot given that the general market is strong and yet, it is trading and trending lower.
Overall, I advise everyone to remain cautiously optimistic for the trading days to come and watch correction for an opportunity to buy for as long as the general trend of the market continues to be up.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 3, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
Market was up 25 points yesterday but volume remained tepid. Most of the Asian market was closed and so is the Dow. I guess foreign investors and locals were still in holiday mode and that is why the volume remained low. Hopefully today we may see some improvement in volume as our Asian neighbors resume their trading.
Over on PACS, market has resumed trending up again although property and mining sectors still remain down. Between the two sectors that are still down, property sector showed more strength than mining. In fact just like the Phisix yesterday, the property sector just needs a one (1) point gain in order to turn its trend from down to up again. We may also see mining sector catch up soon. LC’s trend which weighs heavily in the mining sector has started to trend up. Others that started to trend up as well are MER, SMPH and TA. If FLI can close above 1.02, its trend will also turn around from down to up.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
Daily PACS Jan. 2, 2012
Author’s additional notes:
Happy New Year everyone! I hope you all enjoyed your holidays. Well it’s 2012 and it’s the start of the new trading year, let’s now go back and focus our attention to the market.
Let me do a little recap. On my previous newsletter, I mentioned that all sector’s trend/sentiments are pointing to the upside. Apparently after Christmas, the Phisix experienced some profit taking which changed the overall picture of the market. We now have a mixed market wherein some sectors like property and mining are reflecting weakness. Although the overall biased of the index remains to the downside as the trend remains down, the good news is that the market is just 1 point away from trending up again in the short term.
Looking at the medium term, I must say it will not be an easy market for all of us as EURO concerns will continue to weigh into the market. Checkout the “EURO Crisis (dates to watch closely)” that I have republished courtesy of DC Tripwire. Each date will bring extra-volatility to our local market and its outcome will dictate if I am right to assume that we have seen the the peak of European crisis which I wrote on my newsletter last December 21, 2011 (click here). They are like time-bombs that we have to watch closely.
Today, I expect the market to move in tight range as majority of investors are still in holiday mode and will also be watching for developments in Europe.
For stocks to buy and sell….see my new “Trade Ideas” section that I have put up as part of format changes I previously mentioned.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*
EURO Crisis (dates to watch closely) – Jan. 2, 2012
EU CRISIS – KEY DATES TO WATCH
4th January: German €5 billion bond auction/EURO CPI estimate
5th January: France €7-8 billion bond auction
7th January: Spanish agreement on labor reform
10th January: €1.6 billion Greek bond matures
12th January: ECB monetary policy meeting
9th/16th January: Review mission to Greece to finalize 2nd bailout
20th January: Deadline for Banks to Submit Capital raising plans/troika (EC/ECB/IMF) talks in Greece.
24th January: ECOFIN Council Meeting (TBC)/latest plan action to address the Euro zone crisis
16th & 31st January: €7.7 & €7.5 billion Italian bonds mature
1st February: €25.8 billion Italian bond matures
3rd February: ECB three year liquidity auction
7th/8th February: Mooted EU Summit
15th & 29th February: €8 & €8.7 billion Italian bonds mature
21st February: ECOFIN Council Meeting (TBC)
February 2012: Greek PSI exchange offer
1st March: EU Summit
1st March: €27.1 billion Italian bonds mature
13th March: ECOFIN Council Meeting (TBC)
20th March: €21.4 billion Greek bonds maturing
* Red Prints are very important dates to watch.
* These dates may bring increase volatility to our local trading market.
Courtesy of DC Tripwire
Daily PACS Dec. 22, 2011
Author’s additional notes:
In line with our expectations, we saw the Dow traded higher last night and up by 62 points. Today, we will see if Dow’s bullish sentiment will translate into local gains. With the Phisix trend’s still up and well supported by different sectors except mining, our bias will remain in the bull’s side.
Among the stock that I previously mentioned to monitor, SCC has joined the others in posting gains yesterday. PACS also reflected change of trend on ICT which just started to trend upward. I hope PACS followers were able sell WIN and PHES during the surge in momentum yesterday. As I have stated, they are only good for short term trades. Lastly, note that PACS has stopped out our buying order for LR. It started to trend downward yesterday. LR will be out of the list of stocks we will monitor until upward trend resumes and PACS gives a bullish signal again.
My next update on PACS will most likely be next before the start of the trading day but I’ll try my best to squeeze it on my schedule if I will have the time. I have also started to make some format changes on our PACS and I plan to add some section to further help readers to take full advantage of the market. Hopefully I can execute all of them before the start of next year.
I wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! On this season, remember to focus on your love ones and thank God for the blessings that we have received this year. Hopefully, He continues to shower us with more blessings for the year to come. Enjoy!
– Alpha –
*For new readers check out “How to use” PACS page found at the sidebar or click this message.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.
*Try not to chase stock and always try to buy or sell near PACS given level.
Daily PACS Dec. 22, 2011
DOW closed marginally higher which is 4 points higher from its previous closing. Not much but if we look at how it performed during the whole session, one can say that momentum is still relatively strong. It started to trade in the morning on weaker tone but in the second half of trading, it trended higher. That price action to me is a vote of confidence. It’s probably a sign that the worry over Europe is starting to decrease or at least for now is being set aside. (For further explanation…check out what I have written yesterday.)
Below is the intraday trading chart of the Dow:
Yesterday, I also wrote a couple of stocks to monitor. They are: WIN up by 26%, PHES +12%, BEL +5.96%, MEG +2.96%, PCOR +1.41%, LR+.82% and MIC +1.79%. Only three were in the red, namely: AAA, FAF and PXP while SCC closed at the same price. Not bad since majority of the stocks I just mentioned yesterday, right away turned into winners. Note that WIN and PHES were intended for short term plays and so start to look for sell window starting today. Also continue to look for possible entry level for stocks like BEL, LR and MEG especially if they pullback.
Here is what I wrote:
On today’s PACS, sentiments continue to improve. Property sector has joined the party and now is trending up along with banking sector and the general market, the Phisix. The only sector that is still down on our PACS is the mining sector. As such, our biased for today will remain bullish and we will continue to look for buying opportunities.
I also like to bring your attention on how effective PACS is. Remember yesterday that PACS signaled a trend reversal on Property sector wherein I wrote that the trend has changed from down to up thus a bullish reversal. Guess what is the title of today’s article on Business World? (the article was written after trading whereas PACS already gave a signal a day before trading begun…)
Check below:
Author’s additional notes:
*For new readers check out “How to use” PACS page found at the sidebar or click this message.
*Please note that PACS’ price alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.
*Try not to chase stock and always try to buy or sell near PACS given level.
Price Action Cheat Sheet 