TRADE IDEAS – Jan 13, 2012

I guess luck is really smiling upon us. I just mentioned that GERI is lagging among our list and there it was…it shot up yesterday. So today in line with our expectation regarding speculative issue might play, we will be watching the following issues and here they are:

ACR – A low risk stock which is silently creeping up again although volume remains low at the moment. Watch if volume will increase and if it can close above and hold 1.31 level.

CYBR – As tweeted and posted on PACS’ Facebook account, stock is in a healthy consolidation. Although the stock has a good support at .89, be ready to accumulate in case it falls further between .86-.87. Resistance target will be seen at 1.0 level.

BSC – The stock is quietly consolidating upwards…nice support seen near .22 and below. The stock is seen to initially target .25.

AAI – Based on PACS, the stock is still trending down but if the it can close/hold above 54 and break above 56 then that will change but only if the conditions set are satisfied. Initial target resistance seen at 65 followed by possibly 80.

EVER – The stock seems to have become a low risk pick especially below .16 levels. Initial resistance seen at .1770 and good momentum is expected to follow after.

Possible movers only if volume starts to build but are not to be chase when get left behind are:

TA – Possible retesting of 1.32 level then 1.40 there after is seen. Good as long as it doesn’t close below 1.26. A bit high risk w/c requires some amount of trading skill which means readiness to cut if needed.

CMT – Consolidating nicely. Watch if 1.78-1.79 level will break and hold for a possible next resistance target of 1.90 level. Good as long as it doesn’t close below 1.68. High risk trade…requires a fair knowledge of trading which means readiness to cut if needed.

Note that no indicator, system or method yet that was invented to know when exactly the above stocks will move and so the best way to have an idea is to watch the ticker tape and follow the condition set. They may or may not move at all. Read disclaimer section.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

Daily PACS Jan. 13, 2012

Author’s additional notes:

Due to extended hours of trading, it seems that pullback occurs more like in an intraday basis. The strategy to anticipate pullback is becoming counterproductive in achieving our trading goal which is to maximize profits and be able to ride new stocks as it goes up.  As such, the best course to take is to just base our decision on trend signals that PACS is giving and not to mind slight pullback unless the trend changes from bull to bear.

So based from our list, we can see that we only have a few stocks that are still trending down while the rest remains up. We only have EDC, JFC, BEL, AAI, EVER and PX which trends are down. Although they are down, the price level where their trend will shift from down to up may still offer a trade opportunity. Just like what happened to MWIDE, JGS and SMPH whose trend have changed from down to up, their stock price shot higher after the trend became up.

Another thing to watch is stocks whose trend are up but is on a pullback. Mostly price decline tends to stop and reverse just above or near the “Bearish Confirmation” point. Watch these levels closely especially if they start to bounce above it. They act as a good support in a bullish market.

As rotational buying continues, property sector was the flavor of the day yesterday. Today, I expect them to do well especially in the initial part of trading. We might also see some shift of play towards speculative stocks. Note that on Monday, it will be a holiday in the US because of Martin Luther day thus no trading for the DOW. It means that whatever gains/losses the Dow will have tonight, it will have less effect in the local market until Tuesday. Remember that when “the cat is away, the mice will play”. With not much leads to follow, speculative stocks are easier to push up.  That is why there is a good chance that today some traders will choose to play speculative stock. Of course, the deciding factor if my theory is correct will always be the ticker. Wait until the tape show that the idea is correct before acting on it.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

TRADE IDEAS – Jan 12, 2012

It is now time again to review the performance of our stock list:

LC – Stock was first recommended at the first trading day of the year. If one followed and bought, s/he should have been gaining around .17 cents already based on closing yesterday. Trade Ideas consistently track its movement correctly and was included in our comments for several times.

Initial comment made last Jan. 2, 2012:

LCB – Indeed came out as a better deal than LC as previously mentioned at the start of the trading week, (Monday).

Comments made on Jan. 9, 2012:

LR – Believers who bought near 9.0 levels now has bagged almost a .70 cents gain. The stock still is on track with the minimum target I wrote at the start of the trading year (Jan. 2, 2012).

Previous comment written last Jan 2, 2012:

MEG – stock hit our initial target yesterday which I first posted last Jan. 4, 2012 when stock was just doing 1.72. After five (5) trading days of waiting, avid followers of PACS are now happy with an initial ten cents gain.

Previously written:

ORE – I don’t know how much I stress the gleaming opportunity that TRADE IDEAS saw when the stock was just at 3.90-3.95 levels. Am sure those who believe and bought by now are waking up with a smile. Based on yesterday’s closing, they already pocketed a .32 cents gain on a very low risk trade.

Combined comments made at different dates:

GERI – The stock has been lagging but still is on track to meet our target in time. It even pulled back yesterday given investor another chance to secure a position at 2.15 level. I believe 2.12-2.15 is already a strong support which still makes this stock a low risks buy below 2.20 levels.

Comments made last Jan. 10, 2012:

I have to admit that there are a few of  TRADE IDEAS recommendation that didn’t materialized but the downside risk was so minimal that if one opted to sell, it will not even put a dent on the profits TRADE IDEAS have accumulated for us. In fact some loss is just a commission loss.

I know some of you will ask if it is alright to still buy the stocks that are listed above? Unlike the other blogs  or newsletter that you follow, TRADE IDEAS is not written so that the author will benefit from the price increase effect if you decide to buy the stocks after all have said and done. Rather, the purpose of Trade Ideas is to give its readers especially the newbies a trade advantage over the rest by sharing important information before it happens and the rest gets to act on it. TRADE IDEAS doesn’t act as a commentator who shares information to readers after the facts and when the share price has already risen substantially. So to answer the question posted at the beginning of this paragraph, although some stocks mentioned above do still have some room to go up, the margin of safety is already beyond where I am comfortable to say yes except for those stocks whose price are still near the support. A better option will be to  just wait for the next recommendation to come.

What is the reason why Trade Ideas is putting out a review on its previous recommendations? The answer is simple. I want to teach everyone the value of benchmarking. Benchmarking is the process of comparing performance to others industry bests and/or best practices from other industries. Whether you do your own stock analysis, read blog/newsletter for stock recommendations or follow tips from others, the trade outcome whether you are profiting or losing more should always be reviewed and evaluated periodically.

We do this by comparing trade outcome (bottom-line profit or loss) after every steps/changes we make in order to improve our trading. For example, a newbie who is trying to trade on his/her own suddenly decides to follow an advise of another. At a set period of time, s/he will then checks and evaluate whether the move resulted to an improvement of his/her profit or whether it made his/her trading worst. If it has made a positive difference, s/he then keeps the changes made. If not, either he/she goes back to the old way of trading wherein s/he does it on his/her own or explore other options.

It’s the same thing when following a blog or newsletter. One should continuously evaluate  the effectivity of every blog/newsletter that one follows. If it is not getting the desired result that one desires then it may be time to move on and find another. It is also not different from a professional trader who does his/her own analysis and tries to find a method or a system that works for him or her. After trying a new indicator, s/he then evaluate if it helps to improve trading or otherwise he/she drops the use of it.

There should always be accountability. Again, remember that whether we follow a blog/newsletter, a tipster or we try to use a new system/indicator….always benchmark. This is one of the way that one will able to know if he or she is doing the trade the right way or not.

For today’s trade…watch for possible index pullback to occur beginning today. The market is reaching levels that is beyond PACS’ comfort level zone.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

Daily PACS Jan. 11, 2012

Author’s additional notes:

There is not much to say about the market except that it is still in a confirmed rally but just like any rally, it is still vulnerable to pullbacks. We saw how slight pullback can affect stocks that are high risk like AAA, AAI and LMG to name a few. They drop quickly which doesn’t give traders especially the novice enough chance to react. That is why I haven’t included them again in TRADE IDEAS after we sold although they still remain a favorite among the public. Think what will happen if the pullback got extended and turned the market down…These stocks will be down some more. I am not saying that they are not a good stock to buy at the moment but here in PACS, we are always risk averse and if we don’t have a clue as to where the price will go….we don’t go in. It is better to get left behind than to pay a costly price for a trade mistake. Always remember that one bad trade can ruin all the effort that have gone into accumulating profits if we are not careful on the stocks we buy and don’t have the right money management system in place  like cutting losses early.

So for today, we will continue to be optimistic but will play the market defensively. Stick to issues that are low risk and have not gone up very much yet (stocks in healthy consolidation). They may be boring but they offer a good potential to go up with a minimal downside risk in case a correction occurs (check Trade Ideas written yesterday for support levels and some issues to watch).

Again no new issues to watch except for what I have already written yesterday on Trade Ideas section.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

TRADE IDEAS – Jan 10, 2012

As mentioned on Jan 10, 2012 PACS issue, we will cover stocks for buy and hold strategy. Included in the list are stocks that are starting to show some positive activity and are presently in accumulation stage. Note that the best time to buy them is when price pulls back. Although they sometimes give quick buck return, they are typically slow to move compared to some third liners.

Some stock issues covered here will show previous comments along with additional new comments on red ink. Here they are:

LC – Although the price action last Friday was very encouraging…the risk level at the moment remains high and therefore we may expect some hiccups along the way as price moves higher. For support, watch 1.70 and 1.67 level. Initial resistance for today is pegged at 1.76 while the crucial strong resistance will still be seen at 1.81 level. Don’t be overly optimistic and watch the price action. For further information refer to stock chart study done last Janury 5, 2012. The stock performed weaker than we anticipated. Watch PACS’ 1.70 level carefully on closing. Bull above, which means the stock is on track to meet our set targets….slowly but surely while below it, will mean possible retesting of  1.63-1.65 level. 

LCB – Faster mover compared to LC. Good stock to trade if buy volume is under 1 million if not go with LC. See LC’s comment for cues.

ORE – will continue to watch if 4.20 will break or 3.89 level will hold on correction. Good support seen between 3.90-4.0 levels. Low risk trade. I will not be surprise if one of this days this stock starts to trade near 4.50 level given that NI is now trading above 5.0. Reiterating my call to accumulate. Continues to consolidate but currently seen as healthy.

CPM – Sympathy play mover. Watch if 1.89/1.90 will hold or if it 2.0 will break above 2.0 level. Depending on how LC/B will perform, it might retest resistance areas seen between 2.20-2.23 levels. Initial resistance after 2.0 is pegged between 2.14-2.16 areas. Will continue to tract movements of LC/B

LR – if it will start to trade above 9.50 (sign of strength) and hold or if 9.18 support level will hold or not. Support held well last Friday and showing an encouraging healthy consolidation movement. Continue to watch support level and for possible rally especially if starts to trade above 9.38 and breaks 9.50 level. Continues to consolidate but currently seen as healthy.

MEG – the stock was previously included in our list. again for medium term play, continue to accumulate especially near 1.70-1.72 levels.

GERI – good support seen near 2.15 levels. the stock is starting to trend higher. Seen to retest its 2.44-2.50 high in the medium term.

There are  no new quick buck stocks that is worth including in our list at the moment. Once I see something, I’ll include them in the list.

Below are follow up analysis on recommendation made yesterday:

PXP – Watch if 8.50-8.40 will hold on pullback or whether 8.0-8.10 will hold thereafter.  A better alternative play that offers better potential compared to PX. Strong resistance may be seen above 9.0 near 9.20 level. One of our best gainer in our list yesterday with targets satisfied. As previously mentioned, PXP performed better than PX.

APX – Laggard play. Usually moves after play have been exhausted on LC/B. Keep an eye if stock will break and hold above 4.21 level. No movement seen here yet. We will revisit once LC/B potential is exhausted.

ACR – Broke above 1.25-1.27 consolidation resistance which is  now a support area. Seen to trade higher with possible resistance target seen near 1.40. Some hesitation to break above 1.30 is seen as evidence by failure to see a follow through movement. 

Same as yesterday’s comment…

Unlike last week, trading the market this time will require more patience in order to earn a profit. Strict compliance to sell when trend turns down is still a must that we should follow.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

Daily PACS Jan. 10, 2012

Author’s additional notes:

I was wrong to assume that the market will gyrate in a tight range before finally moving. It’s a good thing we have the borders to watch which gave signal as to where the direction will be when it breaks. We saw the importance of border resistance I gave in trading. Yesterday, the upper border resistance number to watch at 4,519 was broken. After it broke, the market flew higher and closed in the positive side up by 58 point at 4,541 level.

Jan 9, 2012 previous comment:

Today since all sector trends are up, we will assume the position that the market are still in a mini-bull run until proven otherwise. The question on every trader is how to tell that this mini bull-run is over? This is the most important piece of the equation that will make a big difference whether one will keep gains or give it back to the market.

Remember that at every peak of every market rally whether it’s a mini or major bull run everybody becomes bullish. Nobody will tell us that the market is already correcting. Luckily, we have our system and method in place. This is where the value of PACS comes into play and will really make a difference.

So to answer the question, here it is…once we see PACS trend starts to falter and trends downward then we say that this mini bull is over. This is the time to protect our profits and just get out.

The next question to everybody’s mind is how long will this last? I don’t know. It can last until next month, next week, tomorrow or even today. There are no methods or system invented yet to measure the duration of any bull or bear market. The key to successful trading will always be just to go with the flow and not to mind the duration which nobody knows anyway. Stay in the position as long as the trend is still up and get out once it’s over. No ifs or buts. That’s how plain and simple it is…Period.

The type of mini-bull that the market currently has is a rotational type. It means that prices don’t ordinarily move in unison. Price movement rotates from one group to another. For example, today you will notice that mining sector have moved and then it was followed immediately by property sector and the other week, there were the third liners. The groups I mentioned doesn’t move in tandem and that is why to some, they won’t feel this mini bull market especially if they are in the wrong stock. One thing of note is that the general rotation tends to be fast and it doesn’t last long. One will notice that stocks generally tend to immediately go back to consolidation mode after every up-move.

So what strategy do we employ? There are two ways to play this kind of market. One is the guerrilla type of trading…get in and get out fast. It simply means buying stock that moves and selling the first sign of weakness. This type of trading requires especial trading skills and quick action. The other way is through buy and hold strategy. Buy and accumulate stocks which are showing some activity and ride it until PACS says the trend have turned lower. This strategy maximizes profit and requires less trading skill. Once you buy, you just leave your position and watch the trend. That’s it!  At the end of the day, the strategy one uses will depend on his/her temperament. Just remember to befriend your trend and never to trade opposite.

For more of stocks to watch…head over to Trade Ideas section.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

Daily PACS Jan. 9, 2012

Author’s additional notes:

I wrote last Friday that the market may start to pull back and that traders should stay on the side lines. Indeed, the Phisix started to pullback and loss 35 points during last Friday’s trade. It is not much to rave about but having avoided being stuck in a position gives one a flexibility to decide whether to buy or not in case an opportunity arise. It’s an advantage over others who have to wait for the stock price to go back to their acquisition cost before their capital starts to work again.

Jan 6, 2012 previous comment:

Note that it will be hard to duplicate market’s performance last week especially that the ALL-sector of the market reflected a trend which is now down.  The succeeding days to come will determine if the pullback will lead to further correction or an upside movement. Border levels to watch on the market will be 4,519 to the upside and 4,423 to the downside. Also of note are the two issues that showed a trend reversal towards the downside. They are SMPH and MWIDE.

On the positive side, the mining sector did a catch up move last Friday which led to a trend reversal to being up. Refer to Trade Ideas written today for related stocks to watch.

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

TRADE IDEAS – Jan 9, 2012

Although I remain cautious over the market, the mining sector’s trend reversal to the upside that occurred during the last minute of trading last Friday is something that we just can’t ignore. An alert was even posted over on my FB account and Twitter.

July 6, 2012 FB and Twitter alert:

As such, stocks that we will be watching for today are:

LC – Although the price action last Friday was very encouraging…the risk level at the moment remains high and therefore we may expect some hiccups along the way as price moves higher. For support, watch 1.70 and 1.67 level. Initial resistance for today is pegged at 1.76 while the crucial strong resistance will still be seen at 1.81 level. Don’t be overly optimistic and watch the price action. For further information refer to stock chart study done last Janury 5, 2012.

ACR – Broke above 1.25-1.27 consolidation resistance which is  now a support area. Seen to trade higher with possible resistance target seen near 1.40.

LCB – Faster mover compared to LC. Good stock to trade if buy volume is under 1 million if not go with LC.

CPM – Sympathy play mover. Watch if 1.89/1.90 will hold or if it 2.0 will break above 2.0 level. Depending on how LC/B will perform, it might retest resistance areas seen between 2.20-2.23 levels. Initial resistance after 2.0 is pegged between 2.14-2.16 areas.

APX – Laggard play. Usually moves after play have been exhausted on LC/B. Keep an eye if stock will break and hold above 4.21 level.

PXP – Watch if 8.50-8.40 will hold on pullback or whether 8.0-8.10 will hold thereafter.  A better alternative play that offers better potential compared to PX. Strong resistance may be seen above 9.0 near 9.20 level.

Some other stock we are watching with last Friday’s comment included:

LR – if it will start to trade above 9.50 (sign of strength) and hold or if 9.18 support level will hold or not. Support held well last Friday and showing an encouraging healthy consolidation movement. Continue to watch support level and for possible rally especially if starts to trade above 9.38 and breaks 9.50 level.

ORE – will continue to watch if 4.20 will break or 3.89 level will hold on correction. Good support seen between 3.90-4.0 levels. Low risk trade. I will not be surprise if one of this days this stock starts to trade near 4.50 level given that NI is now trading above 5.0

Again let me reiterate, I don’t think the trades on mining sector will become an easy picking and so don’t be very optimistic. Watch your exit and cut loss point. Don’t chase if there’s no resistance broken. Stock price doesn’t normally go vertically up especially heavy stocks like LC/B. Look for intra-day correction for entries if left behind. If not, wait for some pullback to occur (if there is an opportunity…)

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

TRADE IDEAS – Jan 6, 2012

I believe foreign investors are starting to look back again on the EURO problem. We now have EURO currency trading below 1.30 which is at 127.90 level, Italy’s 10year Government bonds trading above 7 threshold which currently at 7.09, Hungary – a non-Eurozone country – which is also on the brink of a currency crisis and lackluster French bond auction.  All pointing towards a rising funding costs in Europe and the possibility of further bank and sovereign downgrades. Europe is down and so are the Asian markets except for Hang Seng index. Dow also almost closed much lower last night if not for the positive US job news that came out.  The question is…how will the Dow trade if there will be no US economic good news to save it again?

As such, there will be no new recommendation for today. We will instead focus our effort on protecting/maximizing our profits on stocks that we already bought and are continuing to give us profit like LMG and AAI. We will also monitor previous recommendation and will be ready to sell if the need arises.

LR – if it will start to trade above 9.50 (sign of strength) and hold or if 9.18 support level will hold or not.

EVER – if price will continue to hold above .1620 on correction or not.

CPG -if there will be a follow through or if 2.04 will hold on correction or not.

ACE- whether the stock can break above 3.30 or can manage to hold above 3.07 level on correction.

BSC – the stock might track OIL world price movement. since it corrected last night, expect some selling pressure today. watch if .2060 level will hold or not.

ORE – will continue to watch if 4.20 will break or 3.89 level will hold on correction.

Remember that it is a mortal sin in trading to turn your profits into a loss but it is always good to maximize profits. Don’t forget to set your trailing profit stop. This will help in maximizing profit and protecting whatever gain one has.

Lastly, I expect some pullback to occur anytime soon beginning today or early next week. Thus the prudent thing to do after a good profitable week is to savor our winnings….relax and recharge.  We will need all the energy we can muster the next time we engage in a trading campaign again. Congratulations for all of you who earned this week!  🙂

Alpha

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*

Daily PACS Jan. 5, 2012

Author’s additional notes:

The market opened stronger yesterday and went up by 65.55 or +1.44 percent. All sectors now are almost trending up except for mining which needs to close higher than 24,739 or have to gain 259 points in order to join the other sectors. If it does then we can probably assume that the index is in a mini bull run as long as all sectors’ continue to trend higher.

Of course, let us not forget that the problem in EUROPE is still there and that the world market is just trying to ignore them for now. How long this will last? I don’t know. In fact, today the Euro currency is seen trading lower than 1.30 level. Note that every time EURO currency trades lower than 1.30, it means that there are EURO problems that investors are worrying about. It can probably be the news about “Greece warns on Euro Exit” reported by BBC or because of Spain’s Expansion newspaper “reported that Spain is seeking IMF and EFSF loans to help them recap their banks. Spanish bonds are trading lower on the story even though it was denied by the Spanish government,” as written in marketwatch.com. Whatever it is, I wouldn’t worry about it at the moment. I’ll start worrying when our local market’s upward trend starts to falter.

Over on stock issues we cover on PACS, the following stocks just started to trend up. They are RLC, EDC, SMC and FLI. BEL’s trend turned south which worries me a lot given that the general market is strong and yet, it is trading and trending lower.

Overall, I advise everyone to remain cautiously optimistic for the trading days to come and watch correction for an opportunity to buy for as long as the general trend of the market continues to be up.

 

*Please note that PACS’ price  alert level will always supersede any opinion coming from the author.*